U.S. Import Growth Seen Slowing in the Second Half of 2015
The National Retail Federation expects imports to grow at a slower rate after a torrid first half as retailers work through inventories built up earlier in the year.
U.S. imports should grow at a slower rate in the second half of 2015 as retailers work through inventories built up during the slowdown at West Coast ports, analysts with the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said.
U.S. ports brought in 8.9 million 20-foot equivalent units, a measure representing containers also called TEUs, in the first six months of 2015, up 6.5% from a year earlier. However, the run-up to the holiday shopping season, typically the peak for imports, is expected to be softer, the analysts said. Imports are projected to total 18 million TEUs this year, up 4.2% from 2014.
Hackett Associates Analyst Ben Hackett said the bump up earlier this year was likely due to U.S. retailers loading up on inventory on the off-chance the protracted U.S. West Coast labor negotiations led to a lockout. Since the contract between the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the West Coast port terminal operators was ironed out in late February, retailers have had extra inventory on hand to work through.
“The volume of imports leveled out to some extent because inventory was still high and importers were trying to clear their warehouses,” Mr. Hackett said. Still, he added, “We’re continuing to see growth coming through—slightly improved from last year on both coasts.”
A strong dollar and steady consumer demand are keeping imports strong, he said. However, a weakening Chinese economy may also play a role in the leveling-out of U.S. imports. Chinese exports fell 8.3% in July, and they’re down 0.8% for the first seven months of the year.
The steadier month-to-month figures reflect a general trend away from peak seasons in the shipping industry, analysts say, as companies have improved their forecasting and ships run more frequently.
Read more: http://www.wsj.com/articles/us-import-growth-seen-slowing-in-2h15-1439238394?tesla=y
Leave a reply →